An editorial in the Grandburg Daily Herald claims that Grandburg's voters would generally welcome the defeat of the p...

Mehran March 28, 2018

Of course! Let's break down the stimulus first.

The editorial's conclusion is that "Grandburg's voters would generally welcome the defeat of the political party now in control of the Grandburg City Council."

The support provided for this conclusion? " . . . a recent survey that found that 59 percent of Grandburg's registered voters think that the party will definitely be out of power after next year's city council elections."

So because 59% of voters think the party will definitely be out of power, voters would welcome the defeat of this party.

We are looking for a principle that would strengthen this conclusion.

Let's take a look at (D), "The proportion of voters who expect a given political possibility to be realized can legitimately be assumed to approximate the proportion of voters who are in favor of that possibility being realized."

This definitely strengthens as it ties believing in an outcome to support that outcome.

Compare with (B), "The results of surveys that gauge current voter sentiment toward a given political party can legitimately be used as the basis for making claims about the likely future prospects of that political party."

The problem with (B) is that our survey did not gauge the current voter sentiment toward the party. It gauge whether people believed that this party would be out of party after the election.

So (B) would not strengthen and (B) would be eliminated.

Hope that helps! Please let us know if you have any other questions.

Julie-V August 20, 2019

I was stuck between (B) and (C), but after reading and understanding the logic behind (D) & the flaw with (B), could you also explain why (C) is flawed? Thanks!

Ravi August 20, 2019

@Julie-V,

Let's look at (C).

(C) says, "An increase in ill-feeling toward a political party that is
in power can reasonably be expected to result in a corresponding
increase in support for rival political parties."

The problem with (C) is that it's trying to get us to conclude that
the survey actually asked whether or not these people liked the
political party. However, the survey didn't ask this, so we can get
rid of (C).

Hope this helps. Let us know if you have any other questions!