@marissa Let’s look at what the prompt tells us. There is a rumor that X has happened, but usually when X happens, Y also has happened; since Y has not happened, the rumor about X is likely wrong. We’re looking for a principle that summarizes that.
B is essentially saying that a hypothesis (the rumor) is undermined (less likely to be true) when what we would expect to happen (the meetings) don’t happen. This is what is happening in the prompt.
A, on the other hand, talks about how a conclusion can follow logically from a set of premises, which isn’t what is happening here. It discusses the probability that the conclusion is true versus that the premises are true, which confuses the matter.
Julie-VAugust 19, 2019
can you also explain the flaw with (C)? Thank you!
RaviAugust 21, 2019
@Julie-V,
Let's take a look at (C).
(C) says, "It is possible for a hypothesis to be false even though it is supported by all the available data."
The problem with (C) is that the hypothesis that there's a reshuffle that's about to happen isn't supported by all of the available data. There are merely rumors, so we can get rid of (C).
Does this make sense? Let us know if you have any other questions!
Gabby_teixeiraApril 18, 2020
I was thrown off by the usage of "a state of affairs" in the correct answer, so I eliminated it. Now that I see it's referring to meetings, do you have any tips on how to address such ambiguous/abstract terms?
