(1) Manuscripts-written by first time authors do not get serious attention except when the author is a celebrity.
IF NOT a celebrity THEN NO serious attention
~ C -> ~ SA SA -> C
(2)I am a first-time author who is not a celebrity
NOT a celebrity
~C
(3) Therefore, my manuscript is unlikely to get serious attention.
NOT serious attention
~SA
Let's diagram all the premises and conclusion together:
~ C -> ~ SA ~ C __________ ~ SA
It is equivalent to:
If P then Q Q __________ Therefore, P
This is a valid modus ponens argument.
Let's look at (B):
(1)Fruit salad that contains bananas is boring unless it has two or more exotic fruits.
~EF -> B ~B -> EF
(2) This fruit salad has no more than two exotic fruits.
~EF
(3) The salad is boring.
B
This argument is identical to the one in the stimulus:
~EF -> B ~EF ____________ B
Now, let's look at (E). (1) 40% of deer population die unless the winter is extremely mild
IF NOT mild THEN 40% die IF NOT 40% die THEN mild
~EM -> 40D ~40D -> EM
(2) 40% died this winter
40D
(3) Therefore, winter was not unusually mild
NOT mild
~EM
Taken together: ~EM -> 40D 40D ___________ ~EM
If P then Q Q __________ Therefore, P
This argument is invalid and involves a logical fallacy known as affirming the consequent. It is thus clearly different from a valid argument in the stimulus.
