We do not have an exact definition of a "long trip," but based on John's distinction we can assume that any trip considered long would be greater than 5 miles. This gives us two mutually exclusive groups.
1. Driver at fault within 5 miles of home (80% of accidents) 2. Driver at fault on a long trip (at most 20% of accidents, depending on definition of long trip)
Let's say anything more than 5 miles is a long trip. At its very broadest definition, only 20% of accidents are caused by a driver on a long trip. According to John's flawed reasoning, this shows that drivers are safer on long trips. If we adjust the definition to 10 miles or more, then that percentage is likely to be smaller, contributing to John's argument even further.
Basically, John does not need to make the assumption from D, nor does Judy attack this assumption. I may have overcomplicated this problem above. If you simply look at Judy's statement, she adds context to the evidence John provides, which weakens it significantly. It offers a more likely explanation than the conclusion that he drew.
nizhoniOctober 25, 2019
This helps Sam. Thank you. Such a small stimulus perplexed me. Lol
