We know that according to the government official involved in overseeing airplane safety during the last year, over 75% of the voice recorder tapes taken from small airplanes involved in relatively minor accidents record the whistling of the pilot during the fifteen minutes immediately preceding the accident. It then concludes that if passengers hear the pilot start to whistle they should take safety precautions, whether instructed by the pilot to do so or not.
But, remember, we do not know the actual numbers of small airplane flights overall or the number of small airplane flights that were involved in relatively minor accidents. Let's say there are a total of 100 small airplane flights and there are 10 small airplane flights that were involved in relatively minor accidents. We know that in over 75% of the flights that had small accidents the voice recorder recorded the pilot whistling during the fifteen minutes immediately preceding the accident. So, in this case we can say that that number is 8.
Now, what's the key thing here? If those 8 times that the whistling was recorded before the accident were the only times that the pilot ever whistled during a small airplane flight, then it would make the conclusion far more likely, no? If the only times that the pilot whistled on a small airplane flight was 15 minutes prior to an accident, it might be wise advice for the passengers to take safety precautions when they hear their pilot whistling.
However, if out of the 100 flights of a small airplane, the pilot whistled on 90 of the flights, that would make the conclusion less valid--since now only 8 of the 90 times preceded an accident.
Thus, the argument is most vulnerable to criticism on the grounds that we need to know how common it is for a pilot to whistle during a small airplane flight in order to accurately make the conclusion in the argument
Hope that clears things up! Please let us know if you have any other questions.
tomgbeanDecember 22, 2019
In the explanation above, why did she not take 75 percent or more out of the 90?
