Insufficient rain can cause crops to falter and agricultural prices to rise. Records indicate that during a certain n...

Melody on November 21, 2014

We are told insufficient rain CAN cause crops to falter and agricultural prices to rise.

So, insufficient rain is one possible explanation for crops faltering and agricultural prices rising.

The argument also the states that during a certain nation's recent crisis, faltering crops and rising agricultural prices have occurred. From this, the argument concludes that the weather, i.e. insufficient rain, must have, therefore, played an important role in bringing about the crisis.

However, we have no evidence for this conclusion. Just because something is a possible cause of an effect, that does not mean that if the effect is present, that a possible cause MUST have played an important role in bringing about the crisis.

Thus, answer choice (D) is the correct answer: "infers, merely from the fact that one event could have caused a second event, that the first event in fact caused the second."

Hope that clears things up! Please let us know if you have any other questions.