Each major earthquake in this region has been preceded by a series of minor tremors. Since the region has recently ex...

Ravi on May 30, 2019

@wills,

Happy to help. Let's look at (B) and (E).

(B) says, "This river has overflowed in every spring thaw following a
winter with high snowfall. As this winter the area received a record
amount of snow, the river will overflow this coming spring."

(B) is a tricky answer choice because it does contain the same type of
temporal issue that the stimulus has (just because the river has
overflowed every spring doesn't mean that it 100% will in the future),
but it's incorrect because it is missing the structure that the
stimulus has. (B)'s diagram is

HS - >RO
HS
Therefore, RO

This doesn't have the same second issue that the stimulus has, which
is invoking the necessary condition to conclude the sufficient
condition. Thus, (B) isn't as flawed as the stimulus, so it's out.

(E) says, "So far, all local outbreaks of this disease among humans
occurred soon after the detection of high infection rates among local
wildlife. An unusually high infection rate among these animals was
recently detected, so a local outbreak of the disease among humans is
imminent."

(E) is a great choice. It contains the temporal issue that's found in
the stimulus (talking about local outbreaks so far and then
extrapolating to the future). (E) also contains the secondary issue
that's found in the stimulus, which is invoking the necessary
condition to conclude the sufficient condition. (E)'s diagram is

OAH - >OALW
OALW
Therefore, OAH

This is faulty logic, and it's the same type of faulty logic the
stimulus has. (E) is the correct answer choice.

Does this make sense? Let us know if you have any more questions!