Detective: People who repeatedly commit crimes like embezzlement or bribery without being caught tend to become more ...

Nivens on January 2, 2020

Why not D?

Can you explain why A is the correct answer and D is not?


on January 2, 2020

Hello @nivensdc,

On strengthen w/necessary questions, remember to ask yourself, "Does the argument need this to be true?"

Let's talk about D. We know from the detective's argument that multiple successful crimes will create more confidence, but also a greater likelihood of being caught. Does the detective ever say that confidence=carelessness? No. This is just a possible explanation of the increased likelihood of capture. It could be true, but we do not need it to be true. Try the negation test, and see that the argument still stands. More crimes committed may simply mean more evidence, which has nothing to do with increasing carelessness.

The conclusions states: "Most people who commit embezzlement or bribery will eventually be caught."

This is based on the premises about repeated crimes and confidence. What, specifically, are those premises referring to? Repeat offenders. We have no idea what the likelihood of capture is for someone who commits a crime only once. The only way we can make a conclusion about "most people" is if most people are repeat offenders. Otherwise, we do not have the information to make the conclusion. This is why A is correct. Think about what information the premises provide, and how they lead to the conclusion.

on September 16, 2020

why not c?