Economist: Global recessions can never be prevented, for they could be prevented only if they were predictable. Yet e...

Victoria on May 13, 2020

Hi @Masada,

Happy to help!

The economist concludes that global recessions can never be prevented, noting that recessions could be prevented only if they were predictable.

RP --> P

Not P --> Not RP

The economist concludes that recessions can never be prevented because economists consistently fail to predict recessions even when employing the best techniques at their disposal.

This is an error in reasoning question. We are looking for the answer choice which identifies the error made in the passage's reasoning.

Let's go through the answer choices.

Answer choice (A) is incorrect because the economist does not presuppose the conclusion in a premise:

Premise: Recessions can be prevented only if predictable

Premise: Economists consistently fail to predict recessions using their best techniques

Conclusion: Global recessions can never be prevented

Answer choice (B) is incorrect because it is irrelevant. Economists' claims as to their abilities to not impact their actual ability to predict global recessions or not.

Answer choice (C) is incorrect because the passage always treats predictability as a necessary condition, as opposed to a sufficient condition.

Answer choice (E) is incorrect because the passage does not do this implicitly. The economist explicitly states that recessions can be prevented only if they are predictable, meaning that the contrapositive states that recessions can not be prevented if they are not predictable.

Answer choice (D) is correct because it impacts the economist's ability to draw their conclusion that recessions can NEVER be prevented. Recessions may not be able to be prevented at the moment, but it is possible that techniques to predict recessions can improve, resulting in the successful prediction and prevention of future recessions.

Hope this is helpful! Please let us know if you have any further questions.

Masada on May 14, 2020

Thank you so much for the quick reply and very helpful