It can be reasonably inferred from the passage that the author considers which one of the following most crucial in j...

Victoria on June 20, 2020

Hi @shafieiava,

A description of the models and their increased accuracy can be found in lines 1 to 10 and 17 to 26.

The passage does not discuss any indicators of success for the models save their accuracy in accounting for changes in temperature throughout time. Therefore, we can safely infer that the author believes this accuracy is crucial in judging the success of these models.

Hope this helps! Please let us know if you have any further questions.

Gabe85 on September 15, 2020

Could someone explain the difference between A and E? In the first paragraph, they compare the relatively stable temperature for the last 1000 and the changes in the last 100 years, so I picked A as this could be considered a short period of time.

jackchaffee on December 27, 2020

Looking for same explanation of A vs. E ^

Victoria on May 22, 2021

Hi @Gabe85 and @jackchaffee,

Happy to help!

To start, the difference between (A) and (E) is that (A) is focused on the relationship between calculated and observed temperatures over the last century, whereas (E) is focused on the relationship between calculated and observed (i.e. supported by data) temperatures over the long term.

The passage starts off by telling us that models have been developed which accurately profile average annual temperatures over the last 1000 years. We then learn that the rise in temperature measured over the last 100 years is unprecedented based on the profile developed for the last 1000 years.

The question stem asks us to select the answer choice which outlines what the author considers to be important in judging the success of models developed to explain global warming. A model which could accurately depict the increase in temperature over the last 100 years would be useful to present recent warming, but this warming trend does not mean much unless it is considered within the context of the last 1000+ years. If we do not compare the last 100 years with a longer timeframe, then we cannot know for certain that the planet is warming or that this is caused by greenhouse gases. What if the earth warms by half a degree every 100 years cyclically and then cools down again? What if this half degree increase is actually extremely low when compared to temperature increases of the past?

In this way, it is essential that a model developed to explain the global warming trend of the last 100 years situates this warming within a longer timeframe. For this model to be successful, it must be able to accurately depict past temperatures based on collected data. This is restated by answer choice (E), making it our correct answer.

Hope this helps! Please let us know if you have any further questions.

Mazen on July 8, 2022

Hi Victoria,

Your explanation as to why A should be eliminated is very persuasive, but it is predicated on your interpretation of A's phrase "few years" to be referring to the last century. You write: "(A) is focused on the relationship between calculated and observed temperatures over the last century."

Answer-choice A states: "a strong correspondence between the model's calculated average global temperatures in the last few years and data from actual temperature observations."

I call your attention to "the last few years" in A. I am struggling with the predicate upon which you launch your explanation; the predicate/interpretation that "the last few years" mean the last century.

I eliminated A rather quickly, because I interpreted "the last few years" to be significantly less than a hundred years, so less than a century, and therefore insufficient to meet the author's timeline criteria 100 years/century, let alone the thousand years.

In retrospect, I want to know if I eliminated A for the wrong reasons; and so my question is: Am wrong to take "few years" to mean significantly less than a century?

A response would be greatly appreciated.

Thank you
Mazen

Emil-Kunkin on July 9, 2022

Hi Mazen,

I don't think that the "last few years" is referencing the last 100 years. Rather, I think A is wrong because the author does not think that only a few years of data is sufficient to judge a model. These two time frames are doing different things. The 100 years is the time frame that we are asked which the author would evaluate a model. The last few years is one of the criteria that the author would consider (and in fact, would not agree is a crucial factor) in evaluating the success of a model over a longer time frame.

I dont think your reason for eliminating A was wrong, to be clear. Wrong answers are often wrong for more than one reason- and there are different approaches to explain why a wrong answer is wrong.

Mazen on July 10, 2022

Emil: To me, knowing that I eliminated the wrong answers for the right reasons is very helpful because it increases my confidence and enables me to move faster and save time for other questions.
Thank You Sir